Is the Canadian real estate market about to bounce back? Or will we see more challenges ahead? With new policies and economic changes, 2024-2025 could bring major shifts. If you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, knowing what’s happening is essential. Let’s list the key things to watch out for in the coming months.
Are Lower Interest Rates Making Homes More Affordable?
In 2024, interest rates have dropped. The Bank of Canada has cut rates a few times this year. This means borrowing money for a mortgage is cheaper now. As of September 2024, the 5-year bond yield has decreased by over 100 basis points since May. That’s good news, right?
Well, not entirely. Even with lower rates, many potential buyers are holding off. Two main reasons are keeping them on the sidelines:
- Affordability Is Still a Problem: While interest rates are lower than they were earlier, they’re still higher than what buyers faced in the early 2000s. Monthly payments are still tough for many, especially first-time buyers.
- Waiting for More Rate Cuts: Many buyers expect the Bank of Canada to lower rates even more. They figure they might get a better deal if they wait a little longer. With home prices staying mostly flat, there’s no rush to buy right now.
So, while borrowing costs are better, the market isn’t seeing the big jump in activity that usually comes with lower interest rates.
How Will New Housing Policies Affect the Market?
The federal government is making big changes to housing policies, set to take effect by the end of 2024. These changes could have a big impact in 2025. Here are the two most important ones:
- Longer Mortgage Terms for First-Time Buyers and New Builds: First-time buyers and those looking to buy new builds will be able to extend their mortgage payments over 30 years instead of 25. This will lower their monthly payments, making it easier for more people to afford a home.
- Higher Mortgage Insurance Cap: The insured mortgage cap will increase from $1 million to $1.5 million. This is especially helpful in expensive markets like Toronto and Vancouver. Now, buyers in these cities can put down a smaller down payment and still get insurance. For example, a $1.2 million home that used to require a $240,000 down payment will now only need about $95,000.
These changes are designed to help more Canadians buy homes. But here’s the thing: many buyers are waiting for these rules to kick in before making a move. This could slow down sales at the end of 2024, with a surge expected in early 2025.
Which Regions Will See the Biggest Changes?
Canada’s real estate market isn’t the same everywhere. Different regions will feel these changes in different ways. Here’s what we can expect:
- Ontario and British Columbia: Toronto and Vancouver are two of the most expensive housing markets in the country. The new insured mortgage cap will help unlock demand in these cities. However, home prices are still very high, so we may not see a huge increase in sales. Affordability is still a concern here, which could limit how fast prices go up.
- The Prairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are likely to see the most growth in home prices. These areas are more affordable than Ontario and BC. Plus, they have strong local economies, thanks to industries like energy and agriculture. More people are moving to these provinces, boosting demand for housing.
- Quebec and Atlantic Canada: Montreal’s housing market has been stable, but price growth is expected to slow down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic provinces, which saw a real estate boom due to people moving from other parts of Canada, may cool off. Slowing interprovincial migration and affordability challenges will weigh on these markets.
Will There Be Enough Homes for Everyone?
One big issue that has affected Canada’s real estate market is the lack of supply. There just aren’t enough homes to meet demand, especially in major cities. The government is working on fixing this by investing in new construction and speeding up the approval process for new developments. But, these solutions will take time.
For first-time buyers, the new 30-year amortization rule could make it easier to buy new homes in suburban areas. We could see more construction in these less expensive areas as demand rises. But in places like Toronto and Vancouver, where land is scarce, supply issues will likely continue.
What Could Go Wrong?
Several factors could shake up the Canadian housing market in unexpected ways. Here are a few risks to watch out for:
- Policy Uncertainty: The government’s new housing policies are meant to boost demand. But no one knows for sure how effective they’ll be. If they don’t work as planned, the market might not see the recovery expected in 2025.
- Economic Growth and Jobs: Canada’s economy faces challenges, both at home and globally. If the economy slows or unemployment rises, people may be less likely to buy homes. This could hurt housing demand, especially in areas dependent on specific industries.
- Immigration Trends: Population growth has been a big driver of housing demand in Canada. But if immigration slows down as the government plans, fewer people will be in the market for homes. This could particularly affect provinces like Alberta, where population growth has been key to the housing boom.
- US Economic Influence: What happens in the United States can have a big impact on Canada’s economy. Major policy changes or political events in the US could spill over into the Canadian housing market, making things unpredictable.
What’s the Forecast for 2025?
Looking ahead, 2025 is shaping up to be a strong year for Canada’s real estate market. With lower interest rates and new government policies in place, home sales are expected to rise by about 6% in the first half of the year. Prices are also predicted to go up by around 2.5%.
Ontario and British Columbia will likely see the biggest increases in sales and prices, as pent-up demand is released. The Prairie provinces are expected to show the strongest price growth, while Quebec and the Atlantic provinces may see slower gains.
What Should You Do Now?
If you’re thinking about buying or investing in real estate, timing will be key in the next couple of years. Many buyers are waiting for the new housing policies to take effect in 2025, which could bring better opportunities. However, staying informed and keeping an eye on local market trends will be crucial.
The Canadian real estate market is set for some big changes, but understanding these shifts can help you make the best decisions. Are you ready to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities? Keep watching the market closely and act when the timing feels right.
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